Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 21,463.
- Add a stop-loss at 23,500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 23,000 and a take-profit at 24,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 22,000.
Bitcoin has diverged with American stocks amid growing moving parts in the crypto industry. BTC/USD pair rose to a high of 22,775, the highest point since February 9 of this year. This rebound happened even as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices retreated.
Regulations and macro factors
Bitcoin is reacting to regulatory and macro factors. On regulations, American agencies have continued to flex their muscle following the collapse of FTX and Terra in 2022. Early this month, the SEC settled with Kraken, a leading exchange, on staking. As a result, the company stopped offering the service in the United States.
This week, New York regulators asked Paxos to stop minting the third-biggest stablecoin in the world. The company has a relationship with Binance to mint BUSD, which is widely used in the company’s ecosystem. Paxos has said that it will sue the agency.
In another regulatory move, the SEC voted for new rules to force investment advisors to secure digital assets, including crypto, with qualified custodians. The goal is to ensure that customers' funds are safeguarded. This is a positive move considering that customers have lost billions of dollars in the past few years.
The BTC/USD price also rose even after strong economic numbers from the United States. Earlier this year, data showed that the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest point since 1953. Additional data shows that inflation held steady in January. And on Wednesday, numbers revealed that sales jumped in January.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Fed will maintain a hawkish tone in the coming months since the economy is doing modestly well. In most periods, Bitcoin and other risky assets underperform in periods of high-interest rates.
BTC/USD forecast
Bitcoin formed a strong bottom at $21,463 this week. This was an important point since it coincided with the highest point on January 15. As it rose, the BTC/USD pair rose above the 50-period moving average. It also moved to the key resistance point at 22,774, the lowest level on January 20th. It was also the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to the overbought level.
Volume has risen slightly in the past few days. Therefore, with the American macro data being robust, there is a possibility that Bitcoin will retest the important support at 21,463.
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