The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been very choppy during the Thursday session, as we initially looked very bullish, fell rather hard, only to turn around and look somewhat bullish again. In other words, the market has no idea what it’s doing right now, as we are trying to figure out where the next move is coming from, and perhaps what could make that happen.
Ultimately, this is a market that needs demand to pick up an order for crude oil to continue gaining. That means we need economic growth. This is the current quandary, we have to figure out whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to slow down economic growth enough to make demand drop, or if China reopening is going to be the Savior that everybody hopes. Ultimately, I think it’s more likely than not we get a little bit of a rally, but I don’t think we necessarily see a major change in trend, at least not yet.
The Market Could Break Down
- We had broken above the top of a neckline for the inverted head and shoulders, and now we have simply just gone back and forth above there, using the $80 level in the 50-Day EMA as a support level.
- However, it seems like we cannot break above the $81.50 level very cleanly. If we do, then it’s likely that we can look into the 200-Day EMA, which is currently right around the $86.50 level.
- I think we could get there, but next week we have to deal with the Federal Reserve meeting, and a lot of people will parse the words coming out of Jerome Powell in order to get an idea as to where we are going.
If we do break down below the $70 level, then I think it opens up a drop-down to the $75 level underneath you. All things being equal, this is a market that could very well break down, but we need to see a daily close that’s negative enough to get things moving. You can say the same thing but inversely when talking about the bullish argument. Right now, we seemingly just can’t decide which direction we want to go, which does kind of give me a little bit of hesitation putting too much faith in that inverted head and shoulders.
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