- The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday as the 50-Day EMA has offered a certain amount of support.
- Because of this, I think that the market is going to continue to bounce around between the 50-Day EMA in the 200-Day EMA indicators, which quite often leads to a bigger squeeze.
- Beyond that, we also have the downtrend line above near the 4000 level, which could offer a bit of a ceiling at this point.
If we were to break above the downtrend line, then it’s likely that we could go investigate the 4100 level. This is an area where we’ve seen some resistance in the past, and even formed a little bit of a short-term “double top.” That should be difficult to overcome, but if we do that would be a very bullish sign and I think it would really start to bring more money into this market.
Looking for Signs of Exhaustion to Start Shorting
On the other hand, if we were to break down below the lows of the week, which were on Thursday, then it opens a move down to the 3800 level. The 3800 level is an area underneath it has been important, and therefore breaking down below that opens a flood of selling down to the 3600 level. We are still technically in a downtrend, even though we have seen a serious attempt to try to turn things around again. The one thing that you should probably pay the closest attention to is the fact that we are very choppy and volatile, so it’s difficult to imagine that we are simply going to take off in one direction or the other without some type of bigger fundamental reason.
Keep an eye on the earnings season, because we are currently in the middle of it and of course, it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see a lot of back and forth. The market will continue to hang on the words of CEOs, and where we are going next. So far, the earnings season has been a little bit off-tilt, so, therefore, I think we continue to see sellers above. At the first signs of exhaustion, I am more than willing to start shorting, but you should never underestimate the ability of Wall Street to come up with the next “narrative” to start buying stocks again.
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