My previous signal on 3rd January was not triggered as there were no valid reversals at the first touches of any of the support or resistance levels which were reached that day.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6953 or $0.6993.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6845, $0.6790, $0.6723.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous forecast that the AUD/USD currency pair was rising within a bullish wedge. As there were no key resistance levels overhead until $0.6953, I thought that the price had plenty of room to rise, so I was looking for a long trade entry.
As it happened, the 3rd of January saw a wide swing down and then up on high volatility, with the price falling much further than I had expected. However, I was correct to look to the long side, as the price has subsequently risen from the low made that day, which has not been reached again.
The technical picture now is essentially bullish as long as the price remains above $0.6845, which is key support. However, we see that the price keeps getting sold near the resistance level at $0.6953, presenting signs of the bullish movement topping out.
The consolidation period of the past few days is not surprising as the market is awaiting very key US inflation data today, and this currency pair tends to react quite strongly to the release of this benchmark. If the data shows inflation has fallen to 6.5% or even lower, we will almost certainly see a rise to test $0.6953 and potentially a bullish breakout beyond that level which could be significant, especially as it would be in line with the long-term bullish trend we are seeing in several currencies against the US Dollar, including the Australian Dollar.
Alternatively, if the inflation data is unexpectedly higher than 6.5%, we will probably see a fast drop in the price. This could be a buying opportunity if it then quickly produces a bullish bounce at any of the key support levels due to the long-term trend, and the support levels at $0.6723 and $0.6679 look especially attractive levels for that.
Regarding the USD, there will be an important release of US CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm London time. There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD.
Ready to trade our daily Forex signals? Here’s are some of the best Forex trading platforms in Australia to check out.