WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Market Continues to Struggle

• The WTI Crude Oil market continues to struggle in general, as we have seen a lot of concerns about global growth.
• With that in mind, I think it makes a lot of sense that we continue to see a fading of rallies, with the 50-Day EMA above offering a bit of a barrier.
• Furthermore, we have the $80 level in that same area, so it also suggests that there will be a certain amount of selling. If
• we break down below the bottom the candlestick for the Wednesday session, which would be even more negative, perhaps opening a move down to the $76 level.

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Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy, as we worry about global growth and the lack of demand that is almost certainly coming. Because of this, I look at this through the prism of fading signs of exhaustion after rallies, which has been on the plate for several months now. Whether or not we can break down below the $70 level underneath is a completely different question, but right now it certainly looks as if that is much more likely than breaking above the 200-Day EMA above.

Keep Your Position Reasonable

Speaking of that 200-Day EMA, if we can break above that and the $88 level, then it’s possible that we could go much higher. Ultimately, that would be a huge swaying in the upward momentum, and it could open the possibility of a longer-term rally. If we do that, I think the $92 level is next. Anything above there then really starts the kickoff that moves higher.

We are in the wrong time of year to expect any type of sustainable moves, as the liquidity is going to be a major issue, and of course, nobody is going to be really putting a lot of money into the market. Furthermore, if we were to see a significant change in some type of new slow, that could really send this market much higher, and in an erratic matter. With that, keep in mind that you need to keep your position reasonable, and don’t try to overtrade in this type of environment. In fact, the next major mover is probably going to be the jobs number that comes out in January.

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