- The USD/CHF dollar has fallen again during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are hell-bent on testing serious support underneath.
- Over the next couple of sessions, there won’t be much to move the market as there will be a serious lack of volume, and of course, everybody will be waiting on the jobs number coming out of America.
- Beyond that, there are a lot of questions as to whether the Federal Reserve is going to remain tight, and whether the Swiss have finally started to change their overall interest rate decision-making process.
Now that the Swiss franc pays a little bit of interest, there are people out there that think that the Swiss National Bank will continue to tighten monetary policy. I’m not a huge believer in that, because quite frankly they have been so amazingly loose with their monetary policy for so many years, it would be a complete turnaround at this point. Furthermore, they have a lot of assets that they hold in equities markets, which desperately need liquidity. Furthermore, the SNB has recently gotten involved with the Federal Reserve on swap lines, which of course is not a good sign for the central bank to be doing.
The next Sessions are Likely to be Noisy
With this, if we break down below the 0.92 level, the pair could drop down to the 0.90 level after that. The size of the candlestick is of course a negative, but if we can turn around and take it out, it can also be a very positive sign. We informed a couple of hammers on the weekly chart back-to-back, but now it looks like we’re going to test the bottom of them again.
The dollar needs to turn it around rather soon, or the Swiss franc could find itself being a favorite. As this pair continues to fall, you may get more leverage shorting other pairs that involve the CHF as the quote currency. On the other hand, if we turn around rally could be a good sign for the US dollar in general. I would anticipate that the next several sessions will probably be a lot of noise that doesn’t really get us anywhere until we get the jobs number or at least some type of fundamental news.
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