This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly Forex forecast of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
- Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 6 months.
- Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
- Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast December 2022
For the remainder of the month of December, I forecast that the EUR/USD currency pair will rise in value.
I made no forecast for the month of November. I think this was a good call insofar as a forecast in favor of the bullish US Dollar trend at the beginning of the month would have been disastrous.
Weekly Forecast 11th December 2022
Last week, I made no weekly forecast. This week, I again make no weekly forecast, as there were no unusually strong counter-trend price movements in the market last week.
Directional volatility in the Forex market is likely to increase over the coming week as there are several very high-impact events scheduled.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the US Dollar, and relative weakness in the Japanese Yen and the Canadian Dollar.
You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.
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