Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) settled on a rise in early trading on Monday, to record slight daily losses until the moment of writing this report. It went down by -0.52%, settling at $5.777 per million British thermal units, after rising during yesterday’s trading by 3.72%.
US natural gas futures rose nearly 1% on Monday, paring earlier gains of more than 8%, on expectations that the Freeport LNG terminal will delay restarting its Texas LNG export plant from November to December.
Until late last week, Freeport had repeatedly said the station, which shut down after an explosion on June 8, was on track to return in November. However the company did not mention the November restart (or any restart date) in comments made on Friday or Monday.
Freeport's comments on Friday came in response to market rumors of pipe cracks, which Freeport called fake news. The company's comment on Monday came in response to rumors of delaying the start of the plant until December, which Freeport declined to comment on.
In addition to price fluctuations due to Freeport, analysts said futures rose earlier in the session due to expectations of cold weather and higher than previously expected heating demand through the end of November.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis
- Technically, the price suffers from the continuation of negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days.
- Negative signals started in the relative strength indicators, after they reached areas of severe overbought operations, exaggeratedly compared to the price movement, to be the so-called negative divergence.
- It was affected by the breach of a major bullish slope line earlier in the medium term, so that the bearish corrective trend dominates the price movement in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily).
Therefore, our expectations suggest a decline in natural gas during its upcoming trading, as long as the 6.412 resistance remains intact, to target the 5.310 pivotal support level.
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