Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6800 and a take-profit at 0.6900.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6700.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6700 and a take-profit at 0.6600.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6800.
The AUD/USD price retreated on Thursday as the market reacted to the latest American retail sales and strong Australian hobs data. It was trading at 0.6727, which was slightly lower than the week-to-date high of 0.6800.
US retail sales and Australian jobs data
The AUD/USD price retreated after the US published strong retail sales numbers. According to the Commerce Department, the country’s sales rose from 0.0% in September to 1.3% in October. This increase translated to a year-on-year gain of 8.37%.
Core retail sales, which excludes the volatile food and energy products, soared from 0.1% to 1.3%. This is a sign that the American consumer is still strong even as inflation remains at an elevated level. Additional data showed that America’s industrial production declined by 0.1% in October while manufacturing production rose by 0.1%.
The AUD/USD also retreated after the latest Australian jobs numbers. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the unemployment rate dropped to 3.4% in October. This was the best unemployment rate in over 50 years. The participation rate remained at 6.6% while the economy added 32k jobs. These additions were better than the previous month’s 9k.
While these numbers are important, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tends to focus on wages. Numbers published on Wednesday showed that Australia’s wage price index (WPI) rose from 0.8% in Q2 to 1.0% in Q3. On a year-on-year basis, the index rose from 2.6% to 3.1%. The two were better than the median estimates of 0.9% and 2.6%.
Still, despite the strong wage numbers, the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely maintain its cautious outlook of inflation. It will likely continue hiking rates by 0.25% in the coming meeting. The AUD/USD pair will next react to statements by Fed’s James Bullard, Loretta Mester, and Michelle Bowman.
AUD/USD forecast
The AUD/USD price pulled back slightly after the latest Australian jobs data. It was trading at 0.6733, slightly lower than its weekly high of 0.6800. It remains above the 50-day moving average while the supertrend indicator has a bullish view. The Awesome Oscillator has moved above the neutral level while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the overbought level.
Therefore, the pair will likely resume the bullish trend as buyers target the key resistance level at 0.6900. The stop-loss for this trade will be at 0.6643
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