The USD/INR is trading near the 82.7600 realm as of this writing. Trading in the USD/INR is rather light after yesterday’s beginning of the Diwali holiday in India. Speculators of the USD/INR currency pair should consider both technical and fundamentals before wagering near term. The upper range of the USD/INR continues to be challenged. The price of the USD/INR remains near record levels.
The USD/INR continues to mirror many emerging and developing nations currency pairs as the USD essentially continues to show a profound amount of strength. The upward momentum of the USD/INR has been strong since January of 2022, and record highs of nearly 83.2750 from Thursday the 20th of October are in plain sight.
Behavioral Sentiment Factors within the USD/INR to be Considered
Intriguingly the record high value of the USD/INR this past Thursday could be interpreted as a reaction to the vast amount of nervous sentiment within global Forex. On the same day last week, the USD/ZAR also recorded high values. However, an additional consideration for the USD/INR climb to record highs may have been the possibility that financial houses were positioning before the Diwali holiday took place. Perhaps some trading institutions thought it safer to hold ‘long’ positions of the USD/INR before the holiday started in India as a safeguard because of the long-term trend.
Speculation within Forex is often a consideration of trying to read the minds of the ‘crowd’. Fundamentals and technical viewpoints should be merged sometimes to gain a perspective on short and mid-term potential trading scenarios. The USD/INR is now positioned for speculative wagers that offer opportunity, but also dangerous results if a trader is not cautious.
Bullish Sentiment Remains but is the USD/INR Overpriced?
- It may seem faraway to many traders, but the 83.0000 should be monitored carefully. Traders should also acknowledge the potential of light trading volume in the USD/INR and the danger of sudden spikes occurring.
- Traders should not become too calm if the USD/INR trades in a quiet manner in the near-term because of the Diwali holiday, because a large order from a financial house could cause a big move in a lightly traded Forex market.
The next couple of days of trading in the USD/INR should be treated carefully by speculators. It is possible some trading platforms may not allow for USD/INR trades if they feel volume is too light. However, if a trader can take a position, they should have risk management in place to guard against fast movements which are unexpected. The potential to take advantage of resistance and support levels in the short term may find favor for traders who are not overly ambitious regarding price action. Bearish traders who believe the USD/INR was overbought before the Diwali holiday took place may want to sell with the belief support levels will be proven vulnerable.
USD/INR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 82.7990
Current Support: 82.7010
High Target: 82.9310
Low Target: 82.5770
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