- Silver markets rallied to begin the trading session on Thursday, but by the end of the day gave back almost all the gains.
- This is a market that looks as if it is eventually going to break down, given enough time I think it could even break down drastically.
- The $18 level more likely than not will end up being a gateway to a much lower pricing, as it was where we had bounced from previously.
- At this point, traders are going to be paying attention to this area because it could define whether there is a bit of a short-term “trouble bottom”, or if it’s just another breakdown waiting to happen.
Keep in mind the silver is highly sensitive to the interest rate markets, and of course has a huge negative correlation to the US dollar, you need to be paying attention to that asset as well. Notice how silver had sucked people into the market all the way up to the 200-Day EMA, near the $21 level, only to collapse on itself yet again. Silver is a very tricky market, but it can pay off quite nicely if you get the momentum correct. Unfortunately, most people forget that silver has multiple reasons for moving, and they typically will treat it as a smaller version of gold.
Demand Likely to Drop
Silver has a huge industrial use case scenario, so that does keep a little bit of the bid in the silver market normally. However, as we are pricing in a major breakdown economically around the world, it is possible that we could see silver suffer as demand for industrial metals drops. It also has the aspect of the precious metals as gold does, so over the long term, they do tend to move in the same general direction. However, silver tends to be much more volatile, and of course, a lot of green technologies use silver.
With, it’s very likely that every time this market rallies, there will be sellers waiting. At this point, I think the 50-Day EMA is the short-term soft ceiling, which happens to be near the $19.33 level. If we were to break down below the $18 level, I believe the silver will go investigate the $15 level, possibly even down to the $12 level. Either way, I have no interest in buying this market.
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