Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 18,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 20,500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 19,800 and a take-profit at 21,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 18,000.
The BTC/USD price continued to consolidate as investors waited for the next catalyst. Bitcoin was trading at $19,200, where it has been in the past few weeks. It dropped by about 3% in September as the US dollar index (DXY) surged to the highest level in more than two decades.
Bitcoin outperforms assets
The BTC/USD price has continued moving sideways in the past few weeks even as fears of more rate hikes continued. Economists and the bond market points to a more aggressive Fed. The yield of the 10-year government bonds rose to a multi-decade high of 4%.
Similarly, the two-year yield is comfortably above 4.2%. Therefore, these numbers point to at least 125 basis point rate hike this year. As such, this will be the most aggressive that the Fed has been in decades.
Notably, Bitcoin managed to outperform American stocks. The S&P 500 index crashed by more than 11.8% in September. Similarly, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index plummeted by 12.5%. This means that the correlation that existed between American equities and Bitcoin has faded.
Another notable thing is that Bitcoin moved sideways as the US dollar strength continued. The US dollar index, which measures the performance of the USD against a basket of currencies, rose to a two-decade high. Historically, Bitcoin has an inverse relationship with the US dollar. Bitcoin also wavered as commodities like gold and crude oil dropped.
Interestingly, this consolidation as signs of fear in the market continued. For example, the closely watched fear and greed index crashed to the extreme fear zone in September. As such, since Bitcoin has struggled to retest its year-to-date low, it could be a sign that some investors have started to accumulate.
BTC/USD forecast
The four-hour chart shows that the pair has been in a tight range in the past few weeks. Along the way, it has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, which is nearing its confluence pattern. The pair is consolidating along the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. Oscillators like the MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have all pointed downwards.
Therefore, the BTC/USD price will likely remain in this tight range as the triangle pattern continues forming. The key support and resistance levels to watch will be at 18,000 and 21,000.
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