My previous EUR/USD signal on 23rd August produced a losing short trade from the bearish hourly inside bar breakdown off the resistance level I had identified at $0.9950, although I was correct to identify $0.9900 as a potentially supportive level that day.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $0.9916, $0.9968, or $0.9986.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $0.9800 or $0.9750.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
In my last analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on 23rd August, I saw the technical picture as more bearish following the descent through blue sky to new 19-year lows which had not been seen since 2022, well below parity.
I thought that there could be a good opportunity to go short if we saw a bullish retracement to $0.9950 or even the parity level at $1.0000.
I overestimated the bearishness, in fact the price found support at $0.9900.
The situation over recent days and weeks can be summarized by US Dollar strength, and although the price occasionally reached new long-term lows, it is surprisingly resilient and reluctant to fall much below $0.9900.
There are signs this may be changing, as the US Dollar powers to new long-term highs, but it is notable that the Euro is holding up relatively well compared to most other currencies.
It is likely that this is partly due to long-term institutional buying below parity or $0.9900, but another key factor is likely to be that we still await the crucial ECB meeting tomorrow, with markets expecting a 0.75% but Lagarde’s statements on how several other monetary issues will be resolved by the bank are keenly awaited and very controversial. The fate of the Euro might depend a lot on Lagarde’s words tomorrow.
Therefore, it seems likely that despite the Dollar’s strength and continuing rise, seen most dramatically in the USD/JPY currency pair, we may not see much more downside here today.
It is true that we are seeing a more bearish technical picture due to the new key resistance level at $0.9916.
Although it is tempting to look for short trades in this currency pair, I would resist doing so until after the ECB release tomorrow. Long USD trades will probably be a better idea in the USD/JPY or GBP/USD currency pairs.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the EUR or the USD.
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