Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.9900.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0050.
- Timeline: 1 day.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0040 and a take-profit at 1.0100.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.9950.
The EUR/USD price remained under intense pressure as investors positioned themselves for a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The pair remained at the parity level as focus shifted to the upcoming US retail sales and industrial production data. It has fallen by more than 2% from its highest point this week.
US retail sales data ahead
The EUR/USD came under significant selling pressure this week after the US published inflation data that caught many investors and analysts off-guard. The data revealed that inflation remained stubbornly high in August even as gas prices continued rising.
More data showed that the country’s producer price index (PPI) rose in August. The headline PPI rose by 8.7% in August on a year-on-year basis while the core PPI rose by 7.3%. Therefore, most analysts believe that the Fed will hike by another 75 basis points when it meets next week. This will bring the year-to-date rate increase to 300 basis points.
The EUR/USD will next react to important economic data from the United States. The Commerce Department will publish the latest retail sales numbers. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to reveal that the country’s retail sales rose from 0.0% in July to 0.2% in August as gasoline prices eased.
They also expect that core retail sales dropped from 0.4% in July to 0.1% in August. Retail sales are important economic indicators because consumer spending is the biggest part of the American economy.
The other important data that will move the EUR/USD will be the Empire State manufacturing index. Analysts expect the data to reveal that the index dropped from 6.2 in August to 2.8 in September. The US will also publish the latest import and export price index, manufacturing, and industrial production data.
EUR/USD forecast
The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few days after the strong American inflation data. It has moved back to parity, where it has been in the past two weeks. On the 4H chart, the pair has moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also formed what looks like a bearish flag pattern that is shown in black.
Therefore, the pair will likely have a bearish breakout as sellers target the next key support level at 0.9900. The stop-loss for this trade will be at 1.0050.
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