WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Pulls Back from the 200-Day EMA

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has pulled back a bit, losing over 2% during the trading session on Thursday.
• Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see a bit of selling pressure, and the 200-Day EMA looks as if it is offering a significant amount of resistance.
• Furthermore, the 50-Day EMA is sitting just above there and is dropping, so it’s likely that we would see some type of “death cross” form in that area.

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Looking at the situation in the oil market, you need to pay close attention to the fact that there are a lot of moving pieces. The Saudi government has recently started complaining about the fact that the paper market is not keeping up with the physical market, and therefore they may cut production to boost prices. On the other hand, there’s also the possibility that Iran may be able to enter the markets if they sign some type of deal with the West when it comes to nuclear constraints. If that’s the case, that could add 1 million barrels a day.

Market Expects Volatility

Furthermore, you have the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will be speaking on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and traders will try to figure out whether the Federal Reserve is going to get aggressive as far as being hawkish is concerned. This is a market that I think continues to show a lot of noisy behavior, therefore it does make quite a bit of sense need to be cautious with your position size, assuming you are involved in the market at all.

If we can break above the 50-Day EMA, then it’s possible that we could go to the $100 level. If we can break above the $100 level, then it’s possible that the market could go looking to the $105 level. On the other hand, if Jerome Powell becomes hawkish, it’s possible that we could see oil drop due to the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to slow down the economy, and therefore demand for crude oil could drop through the floor. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see choppy volatility.

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