The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has gone back and forth during the day on Friday, showing signs of hesitation and confusion. It is worth noting that crude oil has a lot of different crosscurrents that it has to deal with right now, and therefore the confusion makes quite a bit of sense.
With your own pal stating that the Federal Reserve is going to be extraordinarily hawkish, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see oil struggle in this type of environment. If the Federal Reserve slows down the economy, the demand for crude oil should drop. On the other hand, we have a situation where OPEC is talking about cutting output, and that should drive up prices if the supply/demand quotient gets shifted.
Market Awaits Noise
- The market recently had broken out of a “falling wedge”, so in theory, we should go higher.
- At this point, the market is likely to continue to see noisy behavior, but based upon the technical analysis, one would think that we should go looking to the $102 level.
- However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that it has to.
We also have to worry about whether or not the economy is going to be even remotely strong enough to push demand. The situation around the world is deteriorating, so it would make a certain amount of sense that there would be a severe lack of demand. Beyond that, we also have the Iranians possibly getting involved and producing a million barrels of oil for the markets if the nuclear deal gets agreed to. If that’s the case, then it’s obvious that the market would have to pay close attention to the potential oversupply of the markets. With everything that’s going on, I believe that crude oil market will continue to be very noisy and difficult to trade, so the only thing you can truly do is keep an eye in your position size. If we break above the 200 Day EMA and the 50 Day EMA, it suggests that we have further to go, but if we break down below the $90 level, we could break down rather rapidly as well. I think the only thing you can count on is a lot of chop and noisy behavior of the next several days.
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