The EUR/USD initially tried to rally during the session on Friday, to break well above the parity level as traders got ready to hear the Jerome Powell speech coming out of Jackson Hole. It seems that traders were hoping for some signs of a dovish attitude out of the Federal Reserve, but they did not get that by the time it was said and done. Jerome Powell went out of his way to let people know that the Federal Reserve was in fact going to continue to be hawkish, essentially being “tighter for longer.”
The shape of the candlestick is an inverted hammer, and that does suggest that we have further downward pressure ahead, and it’s likely that the markets will continue to go lower. If we break down below the most recent lows, then it’s likely that the Euro would go reaching down to the 0.98 level. The 0.98 level is an area that had previously been important in the past, so it’ll be interesting to see if there is a little bit of “market memory” to be had in that area.
Wait for Shorting Opportunities
- If we were to break above the top of the inverted hammer, that would obviously be a bullish sign as it would break the backs of the sellers for the day, perhaps opening up the possibility of a little bit of a relief rally.
- That relief rally would be short-term at best, and more likely than not something that you can sell into given enough time.
- That doesn’t necessarily mean that you would get that shorting opportunity right away, because there is a little bit of room that the market could move to reach resistance.
The 50-Day EMA sits just above the 1.02 level and is sloping lower. That typically means that you are looking at a situation where there is a lot of downward pressure in an area where we had sold off previously as well. I would love to see the Euro rally so I can sell it from a higher level. Whether or not I get that opportunity remains to be seen, but I clearly would favor picking up “cheap US dollars” if I could. Market participants continue to favor the greenback overall, and I just don’t see how that changes anytime soon.
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