- The BTC/USD currency pair struggled with the $24,000 level yet again on Monday, as it looks like we are running out of a bit of momentum.
- The $24,000 level has been difficult for a while, so it’s not a huge surprise to see that we have failed again.
- At this point, I think the market is trying to figure out whether or not the bear market is over with, or if this has simply been a bit of sideways consolidation.
Murky Outlook
It’s difficult to make that decision quite yet, but when you look at this chart it’s easy to see that there’s a lot of noise in various places. We have been in a downtrend for a while, and Bitcoin has not seen anything fundamentally change. Yes, there is talk about the Federal Reserve perhaps pivoting, but I think it’s going to take a while before we see that happen, and a lot of people are perhaps getting ahead of the curve.
The $24,000 level has seen a couple of shooting stars form there, and it’s possible that we could see that act as a massive barrier. Having said that, if we were to break above those shooting stars, then it’s likely that the market goes looking to the $28,000 level. The $28,000 level was previous support, so it’s very likely to be resistant now.
If we break it down below the 50-day EMA, then Bitcoin is likely to reach the $20,000 level. The $20,000 level underneath is significant support that extends down to about $18,000. If we were to break down below that level, then it’s likely that Bitcoin could go looking to the $12,000 level. The $12,000 level would mark a major “round trip” for this market. In other words, it will have wiped out the entire bullish market that we had over the last several years.
Pay attention to the US dollar, because it can have a huge negative correlation to this market, and it’s likely that we would see the US Dollar Index diverge from this market as well. Either way, even if we were to be getting ready to turn the entire trend around, we have so much in the way of room and time at this point that I’m not particularly rushed to get involved in this market anytime soon as far as a buying opportunity is concerned.
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