The Australian dollar initially tried to rally on Friday to reach above the 50-day EMA. That being said, the market has turned right back around to break through the 200-day EMA, which is a rather negative turn of events. The fact that we are closing at the very bottom of this massive candlestick also suggests that we are going to see a bit of follow-through.
Looking at this chart, it is obvious that the market is suddenly shifting to the downside, which makes sense considering that the weekly shooting star from a couple of weeks ago showed signs of extreme negativity. At this point, the market has been bouncing around between the 0.75 level on the top, and the 0.70 level on the bottom. I think this market continues to see a lot of volatility and negativity, but at the end of the day, the US dollar is like a wrecking ball to everything it touches.
If the market does rally from here, I would anticipate seeing a significant amount of resistance near the 200-day EMA. If we do get a rally, I think it is probably only a matter of time before we see signs of exhaustion that we can jump upon, as the market has been so negative-looking at this chart, we would need to turn around and take out the 0.75 level before we go positive. The 0.70 level underneath could be an area where we could see a lot of support, and perhaps buying pressure. At that point, I might consider buying a reversal candlestick, but only if it shows signs of stabilizing.
The Aussie dollar is highly sensitive to commodity markets, so you must pay close attention to them. With that being the case, the market is likely to see a lot of volatility, as the markets have been all over the place. That does not do any favor for commodities, nor will it do any favors for the Aussie. With the US dollar strengthening the way it has against almost everything, it makes sense that we would see this pair continue to drift lower. With interest rates spiking in America, that is only adding more pressure to this market as well.
