Bearish View
Sell the GBP/USD and add a take-profit at 1.3150.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3300.
Timeline: 1 day.
Bullish View
Set a buy-stop at 1.3250 and a take-profit at 1.3350.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3150.
The GBP/USD pair was little changed on Tuesday morning ahead of the latest UK employment and US producer price index (PPI) data. The pair is trading at 1.3230, where it has been in the past few days.
UK Employment and US PPI Data
The biggest catalyst for the GBP/USD on Tuesday will be the latest UK jobs numbers that will come in the morning session. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the country’s unemployment rate declined from 4.3% in September to 4.2% in October. The rate has declined gradually from a pandemic-era high of 5.1%. It has also declined in the past four straight months.
Analysts also expect that the average earnings without bonus fell from 4.9% in September to 4.0% in October. With bonuses included, wages rose by 4.6%.
These numbers will come a few days after the UK published relatively weak GDP and manufacturing output numbers. Most importantly, they will come a day ahead of the upcoming UK inflation numbers. The data are expected to show that prices surged in November as energy prices rose and supply chain disruptions rose. Also, the numbers will come two days ahead of the latest Bank of England interest rate decision.
The next key catalyst for the GBP/USD pair will be the latest producer price index (PPI) data. The factory-gate prices are expected to have risen from 8.6% in October to 9.2% in November. The core PPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen from 6.8% to 7.2%. These numbers will come a few days after the US published strong consumer inflation data and a day ahead of the latest FOMC interest rate decision.
GBP/USD Forecast
The GBP/USD pair has been in a tight range in the past few days. The pair is trading at 1.3230, which is slightly below Monday’s high of 1.3260. On the four-hour chart, the pair is trading at the same level as the 25-period and 50-period moving averages. The MACD has formed a bullish divergence pattern.
Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range today after the UK jobs and US PPI data because investors are focused on the upcoming Fed and BOE decisions.
