Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today.
Short Trades
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1325 or 1.1397.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trades
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1277, 1.1240, or 1.1214.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
We have seen a long-term bearish trend here over recent weeks, although volatility has been relatively low which calls the strength of the trend into question. The last two weeks have seen a bullish reversal against that trend, with the long-term support below 1.1250 holding up again. During this recent period, the price has advanced slowly but firmly, building new “stairstep” support. However, we have what looks as if it might be a double top forming at 1.1325. It seems clear that is likely to be today’s pivotal level and there are a good 75 pips or so where the price has room to rise above that. I would take a bullish bias today if the price can trade above 1.1325 for a couple of hours before the first two hours of the New York session is up.
Concerning the EUR there will be early releases of French and German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 1:30pm London time.