The US dollar fell rather hard against the South African Rand during the trading session on Friday, after forming a massive shooting star from the Thursday session. That being the case, we sliced through the important 14.50 Rand level, an area that had been previous resistance, and now we have broken back below that level showing even more confusion going forward. That being said though, we have seen higher lows, so it should continue to favor the upside in general, but certainly a lot of confusion has been a big part of this market as of late.
Looking at the US dollar in general a lot of money will flow towards it if we continue to have concerns around the world, and of course this could weigh upon the South African Rand as it is considered to be an emerging market currency and therefore a little bit more “risky.” All of that taken into account could come into play if we get some type of bad financial news, but it was quite interesting to notice that on Friday we had a complete reversal of that situation as we had the US dollar strengthen against other currencies such as the Euro and the Pound but went the opposite way against the Rand.
The 50 day EMA is underneath pictured in red, so that could cause a bit of support and it’s likely that we will continue to see it as an area of interest, and of course as I said the lows recently have been getting higher, so that does help the bullish case scenario in this market. However, if we were to break down below the 50 day EMA then we very easily could go down to the 14 Rand level.
