Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached during the specified period.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered before 5pm London time today, over the next 24-hour period only.
Short Trades
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1875 or 1.1897.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trades
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1732 or 1.1709.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that I expected the support level at 1.1732 to more or less hold until the FOMC data came out. This was correct as the level did hold and held again after the FOMC release initially strengthened the Dollar before giving up all the gains. This was expressed here by a drive down to the support at 1.1732 and then a strong bounce up to the present area.
The situation looks a little more bullish now as the nearby bearish trend line shown in the price chart below has been broken and invalidated by yesterday’s action. The struggle now for bulls will be to drive the price above the 1.1800 to 1.1850 area which does not have any precise pivotal points but it has been a very resistant area for some time. I would like to have a bullish bias but the price is at a top and we are also awaiting the ECB’s monthly policy input which will happen soon and that could drive the price anywhere, so I have no forecast today. A break above 1.1875 would be a very bullish sign.
Concerning the EUR, there will be a release of the Main Refinancing Rate at 12:45pm London time, followed 45 minutes later by the usual ECB press conference. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 1:30pm.