Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at 1.2385 or 1.2436.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today.
Short Trades
· Go short following a strong bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2459 or 1.2500.
· Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
· Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
· Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trades
· Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2436 or 1.2385.
· Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
· Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
· Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that I had a very cautiously bullish bias, due to the long-term trend. Buys would look better above 1.2385 than below that level. The price moved up strongly yesterday, paying off for trend traders following the long-term bullish move in this pair. Once the price broke up above the resistance at 1.2385 it kept going, until finally held by the resistance level at 1.2459. The move is with trend but was helped along by Mnuchin’s comments dialling down a potential trade war between China and the U.S.A. which has helped “risk-on” assets such as the Euro, the British Pound, and stocks. The price is now getting back to the area of its long-term highs near the psychologically important 1.2500 level. I take a bullish bias today but note that after such a strong directional move, this pair will usually consolidate or at least pull back a little the next day. A strong break above 1.2459 would be a bullish sign. Be very cautious taking any short trade today.
There is nothing due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CB Consumer Confidence data at 2pm London time.