Forex Forecast: Quant vs Chart Reading - 25 January 2015

Quantitative Forecast

Academic studies have shown that the most reliable way to determine future price movements from past price movements, is by use of momentum.

In the Forex market, a momentum study is best applied to the four major Forex currency pairs by simply checking whether the weekly close is above or below the weekly close 13 weeks ago.

If the price is higher, the statistical edge is in trading that pair long.

If the price is lower, the statistical edge is in trading that pair short.

On this basis, the quantitative momentum forecast for the edge during the coming week is as follows:

Chart 1 12515

 

Technical Forecast

 

The question as to whether an experienced chart-reading technical analyst can outperform a simple momentum model warrants a live experiment. Looking at the weekly charts for each of the four major pairs, I will try to determine the line of least resistance, and forecast the directional edge using my own technical analysis.

On this basis, my technical analysis forecast for the edge during the coming week is as follows:

Chart 2 12515

 

Last week saw renewed momentum in the direction of the bullish USD trend. The JPY also seems to be relatively strong and in a consolidation phase against the USD; therefore technically I am forecasting a fall in USD/JPY over the coming week. Regarding the other pairs, there is no obvious strong support or resistance blocking a continued advance of the USD, so my technical forecast for those pairs follows the quantitative momentum forecast. The big change is the new strength in the CHF, which looks stronger than the USD both technically and quantitatively. However, the volatility in the CHF is likely to remain high for a while, so it would be wise to trade the CHF in very small position sizes.

 

Summary

The quantitative and technical forecasts agree with the exception of USD/JPY.

Next week, we will review how these forecasts performed.

Previous Forecasts

These forecasts have been running for 7 weeks.

Last week, both the technical and quantitative forecasts were wrong about the USD/CHF falling, and the technical forecast was otherwise slightly inferior to the quantitative forecast in seeing the USD/JPY as more likely to fall than rise.

Chart 3 12515

 

The running totals of the forecasts after 6 weeks so far are as follows:Chart 4 12515

 

Both forecasts have performed negatively to date, due to the very sharp and historically unprecedented counter-trend move in the CHF the week before last. If not for this move, the Quantitative forecast would be performing very well, and the Technical forecast would also be profitable.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.