USD/JPY Signal Update
Last Thursday’s signals expired without being triggered.
Today’s USD/JPY Signal
Risk 0.75%
Entries must be made before 5pm today New York time, but may subsequently be made between 8am Tokyo time and 8am London time tomorrow (Wednesday).
Long Trade 1
Go long following confirming bullish price action on the H1 chart following a first touch of 102.34.
Put a stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 102.60.
Take 25% of the position as profit at 102.60, then 50% of the original position size at 103.00, and then leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade 1
Go short following confirming bearish price action on the H1 chart following a first touch of 103.00.
Put a stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 102.70.
Take 25% of the position as profit at 102.70, then 50% of the original position size at 102.40, and then leave the remainder of the position to ride.
USD/JPY Analysis
As expected, the market was quiet over the Easter holiday. This pair did drift upwards, continuing the fairly gentle upwards trend that I identified last week. The price has not really gone anywhere near either of the trend lines bordering the wide, gentle upwards channel that this pair has formed.
We still have the resistance not far above us at 103.00, which has not yet been tested. Below us, there is a new development in that we seem to have flipped resistance to support at about 102.34 which is also confluent with today’s GMT S2 daily pivot point.
As the trend is quite gentle, and we are not far from either price, I am looking for both a long at 102.34 and a short at 103.00, but either or both will need to be confirmed by appropriate price action following a first touch. I am more optimistic about 102.34 as it has some supportive confluence and is in line with the wider trend which is upwards.
If the level at 102.34 does not hold, we could see the price get all the way down to 101.81 or thereabouts by tomorrow morning’s London open.
There are no high-impact news releases due today concerning the JPY. At 3pm London time there is a release of US Existing Homes Sales data. It is likely to be a fairly quiet day.