USD/JPY Signal Update
No signals were given. This pair has not been covered for exactly one calendar month.
Today’s USD/JPY Signal
Risk 0.75%.
Entry may be made at any time during today’s London and New York sessions and during tomorrow’s Tokyo session.
Long Trade
Enter long after the next bar break of any bullish pin or engulfing hourly candle following the first touch of 102.83. After one hour from the close of the first hourly candle that closes above 102.83, this trade should not be taken. If this has already occurred this morning before 8am London time, then this trade should not be taken.
Place a stop loss 1 pip under the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even at 103.44. Take 75% of the position as profit at this level and leave the remainder to ride.
USD/JPY Analysis
This pair had been the major driving force in the Forex market over previous months, but during the past few weeks it has just been ranging quietly. For this reason I have not been able to give any signals for an entire calendar month, but I kept it on my radar and now it has become interesting to trade again.
Last week saw a strong bullish move after a weekly open that gapped down and bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent long-term move up, with weekly bullish engulfing candles printing on this pair and all the major yen crosses, so there is a consistent story of yen weakness. Last Friday we finally established a bullish flip from resistance to support at 102.83 and I am looking to trade long from a retest of this level now.
There was another bullish event at the end of last week when the bearish trend line which has held since early January was finally broken to the upside. We have yet to come back and retest the broken trend line; if this coincides with the next retest of 102.83 this would be a high-probability long trade with some nice confluence.
There is also a likely resistance level above us at 103.85 which the price retreated from sharply on Friday. For this reason, I am not going to look for a short trade from this level just yet, but it may become a more interesting level later this week
There are no important data releases scheduled today concerning either the USD or the JPY, so it is likely to be a fairly quiet day for this pair.