Looking at the upcoming month of June for the gold markets, it is very difficult to suggest that there will be steady movements. The market will certainly be held hostage to the whims and statements of the Federal Reserve, as shown during the session on May 22. The mere mention of the possibility of pulling back some of the quantitative easing put a massive panic in the markets for the day. Because of this, the gold market fell as the US dollar gained strength.
The $1,400 area will be important for me. I think that the market being able to break, and more importantly hold, above that area would signal a stronger gold market. The area between $1,350 and $1,400 seems to be one of consolidation, and is the area the market is playing in as I write this article. The reality is that most talking heads on the television have left gold for dead, and I am starting to wonder what is left to beat the market up. The fact that most people hate gold doesn’t faze me overall, as I have heard this kind of pessimism on and off for years. The markets seem to have two speeds, one that focuses on the longer-term trend, and one that focuses on the last week or two. I choose to typically be the former of the two.
The $1,350 level is starting to look fairly supportive, as at the time I write this there is the possibility of a double bottom being formed in that area. The ability to break the $1,400 level would pretty much confirm it for me if we can stay above that level for a couple of sessions. The market needs to be “comfortable” above that level to be convincing.
Nonetheless, I feel that the lower liquidity of the June month and the obvious headline risks out there will make for a bumpy ride this June. I think that the options market will more than likely be the way to play what will essentially be a range bound market. I would be very surprised to see a strong move in either direction at this point.
However, I am willing to admit that the market looks like a long-term buy to me, as I fully expect the central bank easing around the world could continue to propel the gold markets higher for the longer-term. This will be especially true in the Gold/Yen markets.