The EUR/USD pair has continued to slam back and forth over the last several sessions, and the Monday session wasn’t much different. After all, the Dutch are now finding it difficult to agree on austerity measures, and now there is talk about snap elections in the Netherlands. With this being said, the reason this is so disconcerting is that the Dutch are actually in solid financial health, and if they are having issues – it is hard to imagine smooth sailing in places like Lisbon, Madrid, or Rome.
The austerity measures that are need all over Europe will continue to be a hot button issue for the continent, and as long as that is the case we will see headline risk in this pair. Also, the Americans have managed to looks somewhat attractive as a place in which to invest throughout this mess. Although there are problems in America, they aren’t anywhere as near difficult as they are in the European Union. The US is quite simply the less of two evils at this point as both have issues, but traders are “less afraid” of the Americas at the moment.
I am starting to see a potential descending triangle in this pair, and with all of the negativity in it I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised if it turned out to be true. Quite frankly, I am surprised that we still haven’t broke this pair down yet – so this triangle that has a base at 1.30 would be very significant from what I can tell.
The breaking of the 1.30 level to the downside is a major event in this pair. I have no doubts that if it happens – everyone will pile in on the short side of this pair as it is one of the most obvious levels on any chart in the Forex markets. The top of the triangle also coincides with the top of the triangle that I see at the moment, and as a result I am selling weakness at that area as well. Buying isn’t possible until we close above the 1.35 level. I am also selling rallies on signs of weakness.