The trading frenzy that followed the Fed and BoJ announcements last week has cooled as Asian markets slumped in Monday’s session, on the heels of a negative session in the U.S. on Friday. Trading this week is expected to be fairly volatile as there are numerous events coming, including the first presidential debate in the U.S. between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, as well as an informal meeting of OPEC producers. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will also be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
"A 'good' performance by Trump could see a rally in safe haven assets, Japanese government bonds/yen, gold, German bunds, and that further yield compression conversely may actually assist long duration 'riskier' assets such as emerging markets, high yield bonds and U.S. equities," said Angus Nicholson, a market analyst at brokerage firm IG in a morning note to the firm’s clients. However, since this is the first of a series of presidential debates, skeptics are concerned that it won’t move markets as much as expected. The latest polls show that only 6 weeks before the election, nearly 20 percent of U.S. voters are still undecided, up from 12 percent at this time during the last presidential election.
Asian shares were broadly lower on Monday with Hong Kong’s Hang Sengindex down 0.79 percent, the Kospi down 0.24 percent and Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 084 percent. In Australia, the ASX 200 was also down 0.26 percent. The yen traded at 100.95 against the dollar during Monday’s session, up from 102.40 following the BoJ’s announcement last week. The Australian dollar was down to $0.7610.
Oil Prices Swing the Other Way
Though crude oil prices fell 4 percent on Friday, they rebounded on Monday after Algeria’s energy minister hinted that a production cut could be possible during this week’s upcoming meeting. A weakening in the U.S. dollar also supported oil prices.
Brent crude futures rose to $46.28 per barrel, up 39 cents, while WTI crude prices rebounded 32 cents to hit $44.80 per barrel. Traders are not optimistic that this week’s meeting will lay out a realistic policy, but Algeria’s energy minister, Noureddine Bouterfa said on Sunday that "We will not come out of the meeting empty-handed." This sentiment alone is enough to keep traders interested and hopeful that a deal is still on the table.