At the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual convention for global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week, Chair Janet Yellen took an optimistic stance about the U.S. economy – and traders took notice. The dollar rose 0.4 percent against the yen to 102.24 while the euro remained flat at $1.1202. The Nikkei soared during Monday’s Asian session, one of the only indexes to show gains following the announcement. Indian stocks continued their slump, with the benchmark set to end five months of gains at the month’s end.
Though Yellen didn’t state specifically when a rate hike would be, traders worldwide interpreted her positive stance as signs of a hike in the near future. Nevertheless, despite hawkish comments from Fed officials in recent days, currency traders reduced their bets on the dollar for the fourth straight week last week, when dollar-long positions hit their lowest point since early July.
Is a September Rate Hike Coming?
It is important to note that while Yellen did not specify exactly what metrics are needed in order to prompt an interest rate hike, she did say openly that the Fed thinks it’s close to reaching its goals of stable prices and maximum employment. Though she expressed that U.S. exports have been hurt by the strong dollar, she did describe consumer spending as “solid.” Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer echoed Yellen’s words and confirmed that a September rate hike is still a possibility.
Odds of a Federal Reserve rate next month have jumped to 42 percent from 22 percent a week ago as the U.S. economy improves. The nation’s unemployment rate dropped below 5 percent this year for the first time since 2008. A report out today is expected to show that American consumers boosted spending for a fourth month in July, a trend that is likely to bolster support for a rate hike.