Over the last few months, financial markets and investors, banks and nations have been focused on one thing--Britain’s referendum to leave or remain as an EU member. The day has finally arrived and the final 2 polls are showing the Remain came in the lead over the Leave group.
The YouGov online poll came in with a 51% of those asked choosing to remain and 49% to leave while the ComRes telephone poll showed the Remain camp at 49% and the Leave camp at 42% with 17% undecided. Bookies have placed the odds of Bremain at 3 times more likely than Brexit.
The tilt towards remaining in the EU sent the pound sterling soaring to a 6-month high Thursday, a gain of roughly three percent so far this week, up 0.6 percent at $1.4793 after touching $1.4847, its highest since the beginning of the year.
Currencies React
The dollar was up 0.2 percent at 104.645 against the yen after dropping against the yen in anticipation of the vote and following Tuesday's testimony by Federal Reserve Janet Yellen was seen to have played down the chances of a U.S. interest rate increase in July.
The euro extended overnight gains, rising 0.4 percent to $1.1338.
According to JPMorgan the sterling would surge towards $1.51 and the dollar rally to around 108 yen if Britons opt to stick with the EU. But it forecast that the pound would tank towards $1.32 and dollar/yen retreat to around 101 in the event of a Brexit vote.
They see the safe-haven yen appreciating sharply on a Brexit, which would raise the prospect of actual market intervention by Japanese authorities.
Polls close at 10pm London time and the first results are expected to be announced at 12:30am Friday.