Commodities are having their first recovery since 2010 as global gluts that have plagued markets for over two years finally start to recede. The gains come after five straight years of annual losses when slowing Chinese demand and rising output produced a global oversupply for most commodities.
With China’s economy beginning to stabilize somewhat, commodities there are enjoying a frenzied rally with futures contracts of iron ore and coke surging to their daily limits several times in one week.
At the same time, unfavorable weather has threatened South American grain crops while U.S. crude production is slumping. The diminished supply is putting pressure on the dollar with increased demand for commodities as alternative assets.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a measure of returns for 22 components, climbed as much as 1.1 percent on Friday to the highest since November. The gauge climbed 8.5 percent in April, beating returns for indexes of global equities, high-yield and investment grade, bonds, Treasuries and all major currencies. Investors have poured more than $17 billion into exchange-traded products linked to commodities since the start of the year.
Tom Albanese, chief executive officer of Vedanta Ltd. and a former head of Rio Tinto Group believes that “….what we’ve witnessed early in 2016 will be the trough for the commodity markets.”
Gold reached their highest in more than a year and oil prices in New York rose almost 20 percent this month, the largest increase since April 2015. U.S. crude output declined for a seventh week, according to data Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration and futures settled at $45.92 a barrel Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.