Not much financial news came in over the weekend with major holidays worldwide but economists look forward to the coming week for the release of several interesting economic reports which could help U.S. stocks resume their recent winning path.
Reports on Friday showed the U.S. economic growth slowdown in the fourth quarter was not as severe as previously estimated. Major indexes remain well above their 2016 lows even as stocks broke a five-week streak of gains on Thursday, their last trading day before a long holiday weekend. Gross domestic product increased at a 1.4 percent annual rate instead of the previously reported 1.0 percent pace, corporate profits from current production fell $159.6 billion in the fourth quarter.
Job Numbers
Due out on Friday is the Labor Department’s March jobs report. Hiring has remained robust since the start of the year with nonfarm payrolls growth averaging 228,000 over the past three months and the unemployment rate has hovered at 4.9% since January. Labor-force participation has been rising since last autumn despite a dip in wages in February.
Economists, on the lookout for a possible recession, are watching for signs that the job market might be losing momentum.
Also due out on Friday is the Institute for Supply Management’s report of factory activity. The closely watched gauge rose to 49.5 in February, its highest level since September. A reading above 50 would signal resumed expansion. The ISM’s March report is due out Friday.
Interest Rate Hike
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will address the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday and is expected to signal the timing of the Fed’s next rate Increase after signaling in mid-March that it planned to move more slowly this year on raising short-term interest rates. Some economists forecast that the move can come as early as April.
The Commerce Department on Monday will release data on personal income and outlays during February and several other reports will offer signals on the health of household spending.
Automakers on Friday report their March sales numbers; car and light-truck sales were strong in February and two releases will offer insight into the public mood. The Conference Board’s March consumer-confidence report is due out Tuesday and the University of Michigan will put out final March consumer-sentiment data Friday.
Price Pressures
The Commerce Department will release February PC price data, the agency’s inflation yardstick, on Monday, which should be an indication whether the recent acceleration in price growth is being sustained.
Despite broad U.S. price measures remaining depressed by cheap oil and imports there are signs of firming inflationary pressures with the Labor Department’s consumer-price index rising 2.3% in February from a year earlier excluding food and energy prices, the strongest annual growth for core prices in nearly four years.