The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference is well into the middle of its first week of meetings in Le Bourget, a commune in the northeastern suburbs of Paris. The conference is the 21st yearly session of the Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 11th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
It will continue until December 11th in hopes of finding dramatic ways to reduce greenhouse gases to limit the global temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to implement new technologies that could curb ongoing global warming. The Paris conference is one of the largest gatherings of world leaders in history with 30,000 diplomats and delegates who have come together to discuss and eventually commit to the multinational enactment of new policies toward forging what many are calling ‘the planet’s last, best hope to stave off the worst consequences of climate change.’ It has taken close to 20 years for this global commitment to reach the enactment stage. Two previous meetings of world leaders, Kyoto in 1997 and in Copenhagen in 2009, ended with promises that were ultimately viewed as failures.
Most environmentalists agree that a dramatic change in climate control is necessary. Not all countries agree on the methods to deal with the problem and for many of the smaller countries, adopting the new technologies requires having the right institutions, regulations and workforce. Experts say that the Paris conference must include negotiations on how the richer countries will provide funds to poorer countries in order to prepare them for any new technology. Some rich countries have already pledged to spend more than $100 billion a year beginning in 2020 to adapt low-carbon technologies and build defenses against rising sea levels, droughts and other climate-related problems. To date, however, the main vehicle for parceling out this money, the UN's Green Climate Fund, is holding only $12 billion in pledges.
Economic Effects
Climate changes impact on market transactions and directly affect the GDP of many countries. An article posted in Time Magazine in October, 2015, reported on a survey conducted for the journal Nature wherein researchers found that a rise in temperature due to climate change could radically damage the global economy and interrupt further growth in the coming decades if nothing is done to slow the pace of warming. According to these researchers, temperature change will leave the average income around the world 23% lower in 2100 than it would be without climate change.
Marshall Burke, an assistant professor at Stanford University and one of the team of researchers, concluded that “We’re basically throwing away money by not addressing the issue.”
…temperature change will leave the average income around the world 23% lower in 2100 than it would be without climate change.
This is not the only report that points to slow economic growth as a result of global warming. Big businesses have been highlighting the potential damages for some time now. A Citigroup report released last month found that minimizing temperature rises to 2.7ºF (1.5ºC) could minimize global GDP loss by $50 trillion compared to a rise of 8.1ºF (4.5ºC) in the coming decades.
The Nature study divided up the effects of higher temperatures into agricultural and non-agricultural areas. The effects on productivity of agricultural products can be explained easily—warm weather provides good conditions for growth. The researchers were stumped, however, on why the warmer temperatures affected worker productivity in non-agricultural areas.
In addition, the survey found that a spike in temperatures may affect diverse areas of the world differently and that productivity peak when temperatures in a given region average 55ºF (13ºC). If higher temperatures increase productivity in cold northern countries it could mean that climate change could also worsen global inequality with northern countries are in general already better off than tropical ones.
University of Gothenburg Professor Thomas Sterner, who wrote an editorial that accompanied the research, is hopeful that the data gleaned from the study will have a strong impact on the participants at the Paris conference and will encourage leaders to agree to strong action to address what is considered a major world crisis.
Still, reaching an agreement will not happen overnight and not over the 2-week conference. U.S. president Barack Obama spoke at the meeting on Tuesday and said that any agreement will be difficult to conclude. But he called on people to remain optimistic as he is certain that an agreement can be reached.
Experts believe that best deal that could emerge from the conference would most likely cut emissions by only about half the level needed to avert the worst effects. But event that would leave the Paris deal a step ahead in solving climate change, but not the solution in and of itself.
If the Paris talks collapse or end in failure, it may be many years before world leaders try to negotiate a similar deal.