At the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank on October 22 in Malta, Mario Draghi, the ECB president, is expected to signal further monetary easing by the central bank. After gaining ground the previous two weeks, the euro ended the week lower amid concerns that an interest rate hike by the Fed was not imminent.
According to Matt Derr, a foreign-exchange strategist in New York at Credit Suisse, “Our bearish euro-dollar view is predicated on the idea that the ECB will extend quantitative easing by year-end. We expect Draghi to verbally lay the groundwork for an extension of QE -- but for the actual extension to occur at the bank’s December meeting.”
The ECB president is expected to step in after reports that inflation data showed the euro area’s consumer-price index slipped 0.1 percent in September.
Euro Little Changed
The 19-nation currency changed slightly to $1.1348 against the dollar this week in New York and falling 0.8 percent to 135.58 yen. It rose Oct. 16 after executive board member Benoit Coeure said expectations of ECB policy were “just too high” and then dropped Oct. 15 when governing council member Ewald Nowotny said inflation is “clearly missing the institution’s goal.”
Economists are predicting that changes to the ECB’s 1.1-trillion-euro ($1.3 trillion) bond-buying program, or QE, would be put in place before any adjustment to more conventional monetary tools.
Lee Ferridge, the Boston-based head of macro strategy for North America at State Street Global Markets believes that “Draghi’s going to be very dovish, so I think in the next couple of weeks or so I could see euro-dollar down.” Ferridge, however, sees the euro strengthening into year-end.