The low Australian dollar and ultra-low official interest rates seem to be helping Australia’s economy adjust to the end of the resources boom. According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, these factors are strengthening the labor market and are eliminating any need to cut the benchmark cash rate below 2 percent any time soon.
The latest Business Outlook by Deloitte Access Economics pointed to the economic slowing in China as the biggest obstacle to global growth and said that it will continue to effect growth in Australia for at least the next two years. The low interest rates and falling AUD will help lessen the impact but the report suggested that it could take a very long time to return to surplus.
According to the report, one of the biggest issues was an oversupply in the mining and energy sectors during a time when demand for these areas remains low.
China’s Fault
According to Chris Richardson, a partner at Deloitte Access Economics, “China has been the biggest contributor to the world's growth and it is suffering considerable growing pains of its own and that's a particular problem for Australia.”
Richardson predicted a period of deficits was likely for the foreseeable future with the slowdown in China, legislative opposition in the Senate and increased spending seen as the main issues that would maintain the budget deficit. Government spending was at levels seen mostly during recessions.
"If China is stuck in low gear for an extended period, if commodity prices like coal and iron ore stay low, and the Senate doesn't play ball with whoever happens to be in government at a given time, we cannot on that basis see a budget back in surplus at any stage,” he said.