Official results from today’s voting in the Greek Euro bailout referendum have just been released, very strongly indicating that the final result will be a fairly comfortably win for the “NO” camp.
With 7.5% of the votes cast counted, 60% voted “NO”.
It is now quite likely that the Greek banks will be unable to secure any more Euros as emergency liquidity and will therefore run out of cash within the next 48 hours. This scenario may well force an exit from the Euro, albeit a possibly temporary one, as an emergency move to prevent civil unrest and the total collapse of the Greek economy.
The governing board of the European Central Bank will be convening by conference call right away to determine its response. The Greek government can be expected to aggressively demand that the ECB respect Greece’s membership within the Eurozone and the democratically expressed will of the Greek people, and provide Greek banks immediately with sufficient emergency liquidity to allow their re-opening within the next day or so. The Greek government will feel that they have made a courageous gamble that has paid off in their favor.
The “NO” victory does not come as a surprise. Four opinion polls released as the polls closed today all predicted “NO” victories, and anecdotal reports from within Greece suggested a far greater visibility and enthusiasm on the part of the “NO” camp. Perhaps more significantly, the “NO” vote was backed by the parties that won a majority in a General Election only a few months ago.
Generally, the more affluent and the older have favored “YES”, and the younger and poorer have favored “NO”.
The Eurozone will now eagerly await the result of the first serious challenge to the Euro project since its inception.