Today’s referendum in Greece could have repercussions across the globe. Or it might prove to be a tempest in a tea pot.
The results of the vote are impossible to predict with final opinion polls showing the outcome in a dead heat. However, the latest momentum points to a YES majority on whether to accept the bail-out terms offered by the Eurozone.
A YES vote will result in the resignation of Alex Tsipris’s Syriza government and a broader coalition will probably take office and have to negotiate a deal with Athens’ creditors.
A NO result will move Greece into taking a more aggressive stance, saying that the Eurozone has no right to expel Greece or to impose its terms on the Greek people. The government will demand billions in emergency funding to be made available to Greek banks immediately.
The results of the referendum vote won’t be known until Monday. Tsipris has promised that banks will reopen on Tuesday, but if the Nos win and the ECB and IMF refuse emergency liquidity, what will the banks open with?
Total Collapse Possible
Some analysts have suggested that a Grexit could lead to a total economic collapse in Greece and provoke civil unrest perhaps leading to the country’s full exit from the EU and NATO.
According to analysts at RBS, Alberto Gallo and the macro credit research team, “We estimate the minimum direct financial cost for creditors at around €227bn (2.3 per cent of Eurozone GDP). This is higher than the cost of a one-off haircut to make Greek debt sustainable (€140bn) and excludes full contagion costs, geopolitical costs from potentially losing Greece as EU and NATO members, and the impact of creating a Euro-exit precedent. For Greece, the economic costs would be dramatic: GDP growth could fall by over 6 per cent based on past exit scenarios in other countries. Unemployment and inflation would rise substantially. “
The worst scenario could become a humanitarian crisis, where IOUs would discourage imports of key goods and social unrest could follow.
Meanwhile, the German finance minister has suggested that Greece could exit the Eurozone “temporarily.” However, this proposal seems unlikely to be taken seriously by either side to the conflict.
