All that glitters is not gold these days as the precious metal hit its tenth straight day of losses Wednesday. Gold has had a steady decline over the last few weeks and has fallen to a new 5-year low of $1100 after a round of roller coaster rides that took it as high as $1160 an ounce and erasing half of the gains from a 12-year bull rally that ran from 1999 to a record high close of $2000 in September 2011.
Gold traders anticipate a further slide in prices, pointing to the dollar as the reason for the falloff.
According to RBC Capital Markets precious metal strategist, George Gero, “Cash is king in the commodity world now," referring to the dollar. “The dollar index is up 8 percent year-to-date. Since gold is priced in dollars, it tends to fall when the dollar rises.” With low inflation and a strong dollar, Gero predicts that gold will remain in its current range until other factors—such as an interest rate hike—comes into play.
Gold Overvalued
Some gold analysts believe that in addition to a negative environment, gold remains overvalued in terms of relative value when compared to other assets such as oil or copper. “It’s relatively expensive compared to where it was in 2007,” said Barings director of asset-allocation research Christopher Mahon. “And it performs badly on days when you’d expect it to do well.”
Gold dropped 5 percent this week and is down 8 percent for the year. At this rate, by year’s end, the metal will have posted three straight years of losses, something it hasn’t done since 1996.
