This can be expected to be a dramatic week for the Forex market due almost entirely to the Euro situation.
The Greek crisis seems to have reached a tipping point now, with evidence that a run on Greek banks has already started with some AMTs running dry and strong rumors that certain banks are not going to be able to open on Monday.
It seems that there is going to be no extra emergency liquidity for Greece to ensure payment may be made by Greece to the IMF by Wednesday, at which point there would presumably be a collapse of the Greek banking system.
Over the weekend, the Greek Parliament approved putting the question of whether Greek should accept the Eurogroup’s restructuring conditions to a referendum, which is supposed to take place next Sunday.
If the Euro crisis is somehow averted, attention will then shift to the U.S. Dollar which has its very high impact data coming on Thursday, instead of the usual Friday.
There will also be a lot of news concerning the GBP and the AUD this week.
U.S. Dollar
On Tuesday there will be a release of CB Consumer Confidence data. Wednesday will see both the release of ADP Non-Farm Employment data and then ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday the Unemployment Rate and truly key Non-Farm Employment change will be announced. Friday will be a public holiday.
Euro
The Euro should take center stage this week, especially during the first few days. Eurogroup meetings will be taking place all day Tuesday, as the Greek payment to the IMF falls due Wednesday with no arrangement so far for the emergency liquidity to make this happen. We can expect high volatility in the Euro as soon as the markets open this week, and a possible run on Greek banks that may be forced to stop paying customer withdrawals as soon as Monday.
British Pound
A fairly busy week for the U.K. with data due every day except Monday. On Tuesday there will be a release of British Currency Account data. On Wednesday we will get Manufacturing PMI data. Thursday will see Construction PMI followed on Friday by Services PMI.
Australian Dollar
It will also be a busy week for Australia. On Tuesday the Governor of the RBA will be speaking at a Forum in London. Wednesday will see a release of Building Approvals data. On Thursday there will be Trade Balance data followed on Friday by Retail Sales data.
New Zealand Dollar
Tuesday will see the release of ANZ Business Confidence data. On Wednesday we are expected to get GDT Price Index information.
