2016 was a tempestuous year with the unexpected decision of the UK to leave the EU following its referendum and the election of Donald Trump as president of the USA. These events have been “blamed” in part on a general disaffection of voters for the mainstream establishment (although it must be remembered that Mr Trump was the Republican Party nominee), a sense that advantages of globalisation and capitalism pass most people by, leaving them “Just about managing” (the JAMs), fearful for their jobs and futures and less than well-disposed to those from other nations seeking to find work in their country.
This year sees a presidential election in France, and general elections in Holland and Germany. In all these votes, right wing parties which are opposed to the EU and the influx of (EU) migrant workers and refugees are standing. In the wake of Brexit, a surprise victory for the far right could fatally wound the European project, so the stakes have never been higher.
Dutch voters go to the polls today with Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party running on an openly anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant and anti-EU platform. Until recently, Wilders’ party had a lead in opinion polls, but that has fallen away somewhat in the last weeks. The Dutch are ruled by coalition and it is highly unlikely that the Freedom party could form a government even if they were the largest party since other political groupings have ruled out joining them in government.
Pro-EU parties across Europe will hope that the election of Alexander Van der Bellen as president of Europe in a re-run of the Austrian Presidential election where the right wing FPO came within 0.3% of taking the presidency, marked the high tide mark for right wing populism in Europe: Van der Bellen eventually won the presidency with a margin of 7.6%.
If the Dutch far right does well, it will increase speculation about the chances of Marine Le Pen pulling off a shock victory in France and increase pressure on the Euro whereas a moderate victory will soothe jangled nerves.