A bill to grant the government authority to issue notice to the EU of the UK’s intention to leave the bloc under Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon gained final approval in parliament yesterday. Two amendments seeking to protect the rights of EU citizens resident in the UK and to afford parliament a meaningful vote on any future UK-EU deal that had been proposed by the House of Lords were rejected by the Commons. The Lords is an unelected upper chamber and members felt unable to continue to press for the changes once they were rejected (for a second time, effectively) by the lower chamber.
The First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, chose yesterday to announce that the Scottish government would press for a second referendum on Scottish independence from the rest of the UK. Given her way, the plebiscite would take place before the UK leaves the EU either in the second half of 2018 or by the spring of 2019. The move would require the blessing of the UK parliament which it is unlikely to get, but will cause much internal rancour during the “Brexit negotiations” if refused.
The bill to leave the EU will get royal assent today and could be used to give immediate notice to leave the EU which appeared to be the government’s intention at the weekend. However, government has indicated that notice will be given by the end of the month partially because of the developments in Scotland, but also so as to avoid a clash with the Dutch general election and the celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome.
Once notice is given, it should become clear if the EU will agree to permit exit negotiations to continue in parallel with discussions over a new EU-UK trade deal. It would seem likely that such an arrangement will be permitted, but the EU is forbidden to negotiate with a member state, in principle, so this remains in some doubt.
It is unclear if notice to leave the EU can be rescinded once given, but it is politically impossible that the UK could be obliged to leave if, say, there was a general election which returned a government with a mandate to remain in the EU. However, the mandate of the current administration will last until May 2020, barring unforeseen events.