The only world leader to openly applaud Brexit is Donald Trump which perhaps says all that needs to be said on the subject. Reaction to Theresa May’s vision of Brexit has been largely negative both at home and on the continent amongst business leaders, politicians and bureaucrats. There was muted applause for Mrs May’s intention to mirror an EU-UK single market deal (for some sectors, at least), but whilst access to the single market has never been an issue, the benefits of “membership” of it are vastly superior to this. It is a position that the UK will walk away from and then attempt to regain to the greatest extent possible. When expressed in this way, the folly that is Brexit is plain to see.
EU leaders have welcomed greater clarity over UK aims and have made it clear that the UK will not be “punished” for having the temerity to leave the EU – despite shrieking UK tabloid headlines – but their focus must be the interests of what will become the EU27. It is self-evident that the UK cannot have as good a deal outside the EU as it enjoys currently through its membership; this has not stopped the Foreign Secretary from declaring that he is both pro cake and pro eating it, of course, but Mr Johnson’s view would seem to be in a minority of 1 in the real world.
Mrs May hopes that the UK will become the world leader in free trade deals and that the UK will emerge as a leading global trading nation once it has left the evil clutches of the EU. This is just wishful thinking. The rise of the UK as a “global leader” is not in the gift of the PM and can be very easily derailed at the WTO should other nations feel differently. The fact remains that services are the dominant term of the UK economy and this aspect is not readily dealt with currently over WTO rules
Actions are said to speak louder than words and already some leading banks have announced firm plans to relocate part of their UK activities to EU nations, meaning that the UK will lose corporation and income tax receipts on the work and workers that shift. HSBC is planning to relocate up to 20% of its UK based business to Paris and other banks are expected to announce similar moves shortly.
Meanwhile, Mrs May is attending the World Economic Forum in Davos where she will try to convince business about the viability of her Brexit vision.
The decision of the UK Supreme Court on the government’s appeal over the High Court’s ruling that Article 50 cannot be triggered by Royal Prerogative will be given on Tuesday.