One of the most saleable policies of the former Chancellor, George Osborne, was that the deficit would be eliminated by the end of the current parliament. That would have meant that the UK public debt mountain would have stopped growing and the nation would take more responsibility for paying its way, rather than kicking the problem down the stream of time and having our descendants pick up the tab. It made some sense of the austerity measures that were brought in following the Global Financial Crisis since it would be morally repugnant to borrow against our kids’ credit and spend the dosh now. Brexit has put an end to this process.
In his Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond quoted estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility suggesting that borrowing over the next five years will come in at £122 billion, of which £58.7 billion is directly linked to (known) Brexit costs. The figure dwarfs the UK’s contribution to the EU of approximately £8.5 billion a year (£42.5 billion over five years, although this remains an approximation).
An outline of the key elements of the Autumn Statement can be found here.
A striking response to the predictions made in the statement came from Eurosceptic MPs within Tory ranks who described the tone as being “too gloomy”. The figures are best estimates from the independent OBR. There has been a great deal of aspirational talk from Brexit supporters and government, but it has been long on rhetoric and short on detail. Nobody from the Brexit camp seems to have a concrete plan for the nation, moving forward. They seem totally unwilling or unable to consider a scenario where their plans encounter headwinds and unaware of the magnitude of the task that the nation faces at all levels if, indeed, it does fully dissociate from the EU.