It is hard to be surprised that so many people around the world are disenchanted with politics and politicians in modern society. The people are to be cajoled, scared and fed a diet of spin and soundbites until the democratic process is complete and the new government can do what it thinks is in national (or party) best interests, secure in their new mandate from a bemused and often disgusted electorate. The UK In/Out referendum on continued EU membership is yet another shining example of this political reality.
Both sides are as guilty as each other of trying to scare the populous towards their point of view using negative campaigning.
The Remain side have (as far as one can tell) compelling economic arguments on their side which clearly show that the UK will be worse off if it leaves the EU; there is scarcely any credible economic body or figure claiming anything else. Whilst it is imperative that the economic facts of a Brexit are spelled out to the electorate to enable them to make an informed choice, what is totally lacking is a compelling vision of a future within the EU, how it needs reform; enhanced transparency; increased relevance; greater accountability; the economic benefits to members trading intra- and extra- the single market; a future where Europe speaks with a unified voice whilst cherishing the very differences which mark out each member as a separate state with its unique perspectives and history etc. Leaving would be taking a big step in the dark against the possibility that things might be better further down the line.
The fear traded by the Leave campaign is based on a nebulous dislike of “Brussels”; a suggestion that we are being sucked into a German masterplan to take over Europe by stealth where it failed in two bloody armed conflicts in the last century (but it is never explained quite why Germany would want this, of course);erosion/regaining sovereignty (whatever that means); a vacuous promise that we would be able to negotiate better trade deals than we enjoy currently and that there would be no negative consequence to leaving the shadowy empire as it would still wish to trade with the UK as a major economy; and lastly but by no means least; fear of the immigrant.
The fact remains that slightly more than half of immigrants arriving in the UK to work come from outside the EU and therefore, if it wanted, the UK government could halve the numbers arriving should it so desire and still be fully compliant with its obligations to the EU single market governing the freedom to live and work anywhere within the EU. It doesn’t, of course, because the UK actually wants these workers and always has – government (Labour or Conservative) is just unwilling to admit it. So even if the UK decided to leave the EU, immigration would continue.
EU citizens coming to the UK do so because they can find work – this covers the whole spectrum from unskilled agricultural labourers through to highly qualified professionals in all walks of life. Before any serious conversation about migration to the UK, one would need to see a breakdown of the nature and number of jobs being taken by this group of workers. It may well be that a large proportion of workers are doing jobs which the local population is unwilling to take on (seasonal harvesting seems to be one such occupation) before any credence can be given to scare stories that these migrants are taking “British” jobs from British workers.
The major failure of the Leave campaign is to provide any credible picture of how the UK would be post Brexit. They have yet to say what relationship they would want with the world’s largest trading bloc. An EFTA-like position would require that the UK pays into the EU; accepts free movement of people and complies with EU “red tape”, but has no say in the decision making process. This position must be worse than the current situation. A second alternative (such as Canada has) would see limited access to the free market, not require free movement or a subscription, but still requires that EU norms are met. The third alternative would put the UK on the same playing field as the rest of the world. None of these scenarios would seem to place the UK in as good an economic situation as it currently finds itself. If the UK left the EU, nothing guarantees that it could negotiate trade deals that are anything like as favourable as the situation it now enjoys. The Brexiteers really need to put forward a compelling economic argument for their case as well as playing on the fears and resentments of the public, but so far, they have been utterly unable to do so. It would seem as if they are playing a game of Russian Roulette with the fortunes of the British nation and to no tangible purpose.