Australia may head for the polls again sooner than expected. At last week’s Senate meeting, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull threatened to dissolve both houses of parliament and call an early election if his reforms were not approved.
Following a succession of five prime ministers in as many years, Turnbull came to power in September 2015 calling for better management of Australia's economy, but his government does not control the Senate and he has failed to push through industrial relations bills. One of the reforms put forth by Turnbull aims to bring back the watchdog Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC), which was scuffled by the former Labor government and is unacceptable by union leaders.
Turnbull told the Senate members that if it fails to pass the laws, he would advise the Governor-General to dissolve both Houses of Parliament and issue writs for an election, setting the date for July 2. The premier said that he would recall parliament from April 18 for a three-week session to pass the laws and if that fails, both houses would need to be dissolved by May 11 to allow for a July vote.
As far as Turnbull is concerned, "The time for playing games is over."
Bringing elections in early would impact directly on the Australian economy as the Reserve Bank of Australia would not want to be viewed as trying to affect the elections…
28-Hour Session
The Senate session began on Thursday and lasted 28 hours—well into Friday-- with lawmakers, at least one of them dressed in pajamas, using various delaying tactics aimed at breaking through their opponents' strength. The reforms were eventually passed and parliament recessed until May when the annual budget is due.
A ‘double dissolution election’, where voters choose both houses of parliament, is rare in the country but Turnbull sees no other alternative as he accuses independent and minor party senators elected at the last election in 2013 of stalling on key aspects of the government's agenda, including changes that would make higher education and health care more expensive and limit access to welfare. The PM believes that a double dissolution election would clear the Senate of obstructionists and allow long-stalled economic reforms to go through.
Under Australia's constitution, the deadline for calling for a double dissolution election is May 11th and the earliest it could be held is June. In order to make the call Turnbull needs a piece of legislation twice defeated by the Senate as the trigger.
He already has a labor bill which has been defeated once so he would have to recall parliament before May 3 to allow time to reintroduce the labor bill and have it voted on by the Senate before the May 11 deadline which would require him to bring forward the May 10 budget as an excuse.
Political scientists believe that early elections are in essence a means for Turnbull to consolidate his leadership and avoid suffering the same fate of his predecessor Tony Abbott. Abbott lost his position because of widespread criticism of his leadership style, particularly his inability to pass reforms in parliament. Elections are a way for Turnbull to prove his own worth and put his stamp on the government.
Negative PM Ratings
The latest poll published by The Australian last Monday revealed Turnbull's approval rating as prime minister had dropped into negative territory for the first time since he assumed power, casting doubt on his party's ability to win the July elections.
Bringing elections in early would impact directly on the Australian economy as the Reserve Bank of Australia would not want to be viewed as trying to affect the elections and would probably scuttle its plans to cut interest rates in the second or third quarter, which is a net positive for the Australian dollar.
On the one hand, the uncertainty caused by a sooner-than-expected election campaign may be problematic for the economy while on the other hand, the country could benefit from rational policy making if the Senate gets cleaned up by a double dissolution election.