Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics in the UK (ONS) provide an initial estimate of the nation’s GDP in the final quarter of 2015. According to this data, Q4 saw an expansion of 0.5% over the previous quarter, returning full year growth of 2.2%. In the current global economic climate, the figure is commendable, but it represents a slowdown over the 2014 growth which came in at 2.9%. In comparison with Q4 2014, the fourth quarter of 2015 showed growth of 1.9%, but that was a fall from the comparable Q3 data by 0.2%, showing that the economy was slowing somewhat. Indeed, on this basis, the Q4 growth was the weakest seen since early in 2013. However, such is the global performance that the UK economy remains one of the fastest growing developed nations.
The UK’s economic performance in 2015 met the prediction made by the IMF which called for growth of 2.2%. That organisation expects that UK growth ought to hold steady at this level until 2018, but suggests that more robust growth will require an upturn in the global economy. The Bank of England has been more Bullish about British prospects for 2016 expecting it to come in at 2.5%, however, it is widely expected that this figure will be revised downwards shortly. It is also widely expected that the Bank will keep interest rates on hold for a further year. They have been at 0.5% since March 2009.
The UK is trying to redefine its relationship with the EU ahead of a referendum on continued membership which could happen as early as this year, but must occur before the end of next year. The business community has warned that, whatever the outcome, uncertainty over Britain’s future in the block will be bad for confidence and inward investment.