It looks like the glitter of gold is shining once again. The $15 trillion selloff in global equity markets since May and the rout in oil prices are reviving the lure of gold for investors looking for safe havens for their money.
When things go wrong in the markets and investors are uncertain which way to turn, they often turn to gold. Gold has been staging a rebound of late with trading either side of $1,100. Gold prices were off 0.3 percent on Friday at $1,097.90 but picked up in today’s trading, hovering now at about 1,103.00.
Gold had dropped to a five-year low in December as the dollar strengthened and U.S. inflation remained stagnant, cutting demand for the metal as an alternative investment. The cost of living in the U.S. dropped unexpectedly in December, as a slump in commodities, lower oil prices, China’s economic slowdown and competitive currency devaluations increased the risk of deflation around the world.
Gold Shines
Hedge funds have more than doubled their net-long position in bullion just weeks after they were the most-bearish ever. Investor holdings of gold through exchange-traded products are expanding at the fastest pace in a year, and the value of the ETPs has already jumped by $3 billion since the start of 2016.
Investors have poured $926 million into ETFs backed by precious metals so far in January, according to the latest data compiled by Bloomberg, on pace for the biggest monthly expansion in a year while holdings in global gold ETPs reached almost 1,500 metric tons last week, the highest since November 2015.
Gold futures gained 3.4 percent in January to $1,096.30 an ounce on the Comex in New York, heading for the biggest monthly gain since August. The net-long position in gold futures and options reached 1,934 contracts in the week ended Jan. 19, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released three days later. That’s up from 902 a week earlier and equates with a record net-short holding of 24,263 held at the end of last year.
Bullish on Gold
As gold prices bounce along the bottom of a four-year low, savvy investors are setting themselves up for the beginning of a new commodities bull market.
Analysts suggest that all indicators right now are pointing to a surge in the spot price of gold in 2016, with experts predicting a new bull run that could double, even triple prices--in a very short amount of time.
Ron Meisel, one of North America's leading technical analysts, believes that “We're overdue for this correction.”
According to a Citigroup report from Jan. 19th concerns about further contagion from China, volatile stock markets and tensions in the Middle East are what seem to be pushing gold prices up. The bank raised its 2016 outlook by 7.5 percent to $1,070 pointing out that global turmoil should act as a continued support to prices during the current quarter. Analysts predict that the strong dollar will end later in the year and that should also keep gold prices in positive territory. Any analyst, however, are still divided as to the future of the precious gold commodity.