The European Union has long been a political whipping boy in the UK, and, in fairness, in all of the EU’s member states to a greater or lesser extent. It would also be fair to say that on most issues, public opinion in its member states is always split nearly 50:50 with a narrow majority supporting issues dear to the EU’s heart. Political pressure in the UK between “the establishment” and Eurosceptic MPs and perceived public opinion has pushed the government into a position where it has promised the electorate an “in/out” referendum on the UK’s continued membership of the bloc by the end of 2017.
With the exception of UKIP (which only has one MP, but enjoys considerable grass roots support), all of the major parties wish to see the UK remain within the EU, but there are dissenting voices amongst them, of course. The ruling Conservative party which has promised the vote, takes the view that it will renegotiate aspects of Britain’s membership of the EU and, having secured these concessions, campaign vigorously for the UK to continue its membership.
A parliamentary committee, the European Scrutiny Committee, has pointed out that the changes that Mr Cameron hopes to see will require alterations to existing EU treaties. This is a much more exacting task then agreeing strategic objectives, memoranda of understanding and other tools which might have been used to accommodate British wishes. Alteration to a key EU treaty would require the unanimous backing of all 28 states – in some countries, a change to a treaty may well trigger a national referendum before their national parliament had the power to ratify such a change.
Given the treaty impediment, it may be difficult for the Prime Minister to claim that he has been able to negotiate substantive changes to Britain’s relationship with the EU – always supposing that other states are willing to concede to British demands at a governmental level.
The UK government hopes to see agreement in four key areas:
* Protection of the single market for Britain and other non-euro countries
* Boosting competitiveness by setting a target for the reduction of the "burden" of red tape
* Exempting Britain from "ever-closer union" and bolstering national parliaments
* Restricting EU migrants' access to in-work benefits such as tax credits
The final item is likely to be the sticking point since “harmonisation in the field of social security and social protection” is a subject which requires a unanimous vote before an affected treaty might be amended. It remains to be seen how much support the PM can attract from fellow leaders for his reform ideas in this area and then again, how well he can sell a putative change to the British electorate.